Projected Revenue Gains and (Losses)
of the Nebraska Advantage Act
for Tax Years 2010-2022, by Fiscal Year

Reporting Neb. Rev. Stat. § 77-5731(l)


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Incentive tax credits (ITC) can influence the Nebraska economy positively, and those economic effects can, in turn, impact state revenue. Using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, the fiscal impacts of the program are estimated over the next ten years. This estimate is based upon completed and ongoing LB 775 projects, and ongoing Nebraska Advantage Act projects. These assumptions will be modified in the future with experience gained from Nebraska Advantage Act projects.

To analyze the fiscal impact of the tax credits, the dynamic Tax Revenue Analysis In Nebraska (TRAIN) model, a custom-built Nebraska CGE model, is used.1 With TRAIN, the Nebraska economy is divided into 74 distinct sectors in order to explicitly trace economic flows. The TRAIN model is constructed based on Walrasian general equilibrium theory, which assumes all markets adjust through price changes, so the TRAIN analysis works well for analyzing structural changes and their consequences in the long run, but not for dealing with short-term fluctuations.

TRAIN details state government sectors in order to capture the sensitivity of state government revenue and expenditure flows. TRAIN calculates most tax impacts within the model, without requiring additional calculations outside the model to obtain final results. This allows the researcher to avoid rigid assumptions that may deliver vague results.

TRAIN mathematically expresses the Nebraska economy with over 1,300 equations and a social accounting matrix (SAM) database. It has 28 industrial sectors, two factor sectors, an investment sector, nine household sectors, 33 government sectors, and a rest-of-world sector.

The critical assumption when constructing a general equilibrium model is that the initial condition of the economy is in equilibrium. Therefore, the model is constructed so that its equilibrium replicates observed data in the base year. The date for TRAIN is the latest SAM and parameters. The estimate of tax credits used is based on the history of the LB 775 program, and the first use of credits under Nebraska Advantage.

Future revenue gains and (losses) due to Nebraska’s tax incentive programs are estimated based on the analysis of historical LB 775 and Nebraska Advantage Act data, national forecasting analysis, and the TRAIN model. The possible revenue losses by tax credit claims are estimated mainly based on the analysis of LB 775 projects that includes 178 completed and 251 active projects, and nine active Nebraska Advantage Act projects. The LB 775 and Nebraska Advantage Act data contain information about the amount of earned tax credits, the amount of credit used by tax types, the amount of qualified investments, and the number of jobs. These data provide reliable indicators for future Nebraska Advantage Act tax credit claims. Because industrial investment associated with tax credit is influenced by the business cycle, US macroeconomic forecasts from IHS Global Insight are adapted for projecting business activity that generates the earning and use of incentive tax credits.

The table below provides two estimates of employment due to the Nebraska Advantage Act. The first, labeled “Estimated Number of New Jobs for Qualifying Tax Credits,” is an estimate of the number of FTE jobs that will be used to qualify for tax credits by year. The second estimate, “Estimated Net New Economic Job Increases (Decreases),” is an estimate of the total number of new jobs created as a result of Nebraska Advantage Act program investment. This number is smaller than the first number, which represents more of an accounting number of employees at a project, because a number of these jobs would have occurred without the incentive tax credits under the Nebraska Advantage Act. The second number includes both direct and indirect employment in Nebraska. That is, it includes both the direct new economic jobs at the projects and the indirect new jobs throughout the Nebraska economy that are created to support the new investment and direct employment due to the Nebraska Advantage Act.

1A more detailed description of the TRAIN model is available upon request.


Fiscal Analysis of the Nebraska Advantage Act

Summary
 2010-11
 2011-12
 2012-13
 2013-14
 2014-15
 2015-16 
Revenue Generated by ITC
$13,144,425
$17,139,330
$23,462,856
$28,419,656
$32,815,654
$36,586,283
Tax Credits Used
27,178,862
16,340,398
23,004,423
29,275,042
37,998,147
47,762,859
Direct Sales and Use Tax Refund
10,086,800
10,898,155
17,413,672
25,041,684
32,745,901
40,016,037

Revenue Gain (Loss)
Cumulative

(24,121,237)
(41,543,894)
(10,099,223)
(51,643,116)
(16,955,238)
(68,598,354)

(25,897,070)
(94,495,425)

(37,928,394)
(132,423,819)

(51,192,612)
(183,616,431)
Tax Credits Earned
Tax Credits Recaptured
Tax Credits Expired
Tax Credit Balance
69,184,184
0
0
70,486,782
49,860,699
0
0
104,007,083
71,894,837
0
0
152,897,497
95,405,991
0
0
219,028,446
117,326,689
127,667
0
298,229,322
135,174,676
275,200
0
385,365,938
Estimated Employment
       Estimated Number of New Jobs
              for Qualifying Tax Credits
       Estimated Net New Economic
               Job Increases (Decreases)
 
 
2,178
 
244
 
 
2,018
 
522
 
 
2,190
 
1,167
 
 
2,835
 
1,921
 
 
3,443
 
2,503
 
 
3,932
 
3,000
 
Summary
 2016-17 
 2017-18 
 2018-19 
 2019-20 
 2020-21 
 2021-22 
Revenue Generated by ITC
$40,032,650
$43,039,997
$45,263,886
$47,372,809
$49,747,028
$51,779,609
Tax Credits Used
57,213,512
67,487,344
77,924,631
88,322,071
98,499,150
108,129,814
Direct Sales and Use Tax Refund
46,746,607
52,357,948
56,485,576
59,689,546
62,489,503
65,074,499
Revenue Gain (Loss)
Cumulative
(63,927,470)
(247,543,901)
(76,805,295)
(324,349,196)
(89,146,322)
(413,495,517)
(100,638,809)
(514,134,326)
(111,241,625)
(625,375,951)
(121,424,705)
(746,800,655)
Tax Credits Earned
Tax Credits Recaptured
Tax Credits Expired
Tax Credit Balance
148,526,818
301,679
0
476,377,565
158,136,601
311,456
43,094
566,672,272
164,611,878
318,964
143,800
652,896,754
168,966,194
328,647
1,209,943
732,002,287
172,290,312
338,224
1,560,257
803,894,967
175,590,622
353,506
1,195,468
869,814,802
Estimated Employment
       Estimated Number of New Jobs
                for Qualifying Tax Credits
       Estimated Net New Economic                Job Increases (Decreases)
            

4,330
  
3,446
             

4,704

3,826
             

5,056

4,135
             

5,372

4,387
             

5,661

4,599
               

5,935

4,801

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